Maybe some U.S. owner in a stinky market like Nashville is going to wake up one morning and conclude, "What was I thinking!!?" Maybe the league itself will come to the realization that, "Hey, maybe we might be better off -- and we're just spitballing here -- by putting our teams in markets where they recognize hockey as a sport."

So we can't tell you exactly how it's going to happen. But based on the curb-stomping the NHLPA took in the tentative new CBA unveiled yesterday, the prospect of the NHL returning to Winnipeg took a giant step forward.

Forget about the cap of $39 million, that's irrelevant to Winnipeg. The only number worth concentrating on in this market is $21.5 million, the CBA's reported floor. And, remember, both those numbers are based on projected revenues of $1.8 billion, only $200 million less than the $2 billion generated before these MENSA candidates decided they'd be better off not playing games for an entire year. So don't be shocked if any cap numbers proposed today will undergo significant shrinkage by this time next summer -- which is exactly why a portion of players' salaries will be held in escrow (ie. owners' bank accounts) next season.

Bottom line: the agreement probably couldn't be more small-market-friendly if it had been negotiated by Manitoba Moose boss Mark Chipman himself. Sure, teams can no longer have rock-bottom $17-million payrolls, like the Pittsburgh Penguins, but at least the days of two-tiered hockey are over.

That means a Winnipeg franchise with, say, a $25-million cap won't be obliterated in the open market by one with a bloated $80-million payroll. The agreement also includes revenue-sharing where the top 10 money-making clubs donate to a fund shared by the bottom 10 teams. But since these are NHL owners we're talking about here, let's just assume there won't be much money changing hands.

No, the players are paying for this baby, thanks to a stubborn union leader, surrounded by enough believers, who led the whole bunch off the cliff. Although, maybe it didn't matter what the NHLPA did, because throughout the negotiations every time the players bent over the owners' response was, "Not far enough yet."

Whatever. That's not our problem, right?

In this town, it's details, schmetails: Are we getting a team or not?

According to Chipman, the first order of business is to see the new CBA in action, a reasonable deduction.

"We need to see how this deal works," Chipman said yesterday. " It gives us the luxury of time. We have a good product (the Moose) right now that we're very proud of. We can at the same time see how this new world order unfolds in the next year or so. Then we can assess whether or not it's something we can pursue. Is it going to work for 30 (existing) markets? I don't know. It would need to work in less than 30 markets for us to even get our hands on the ball."

Now the tinderbox question in Winnipeg: Is there now reason to hope?

"Wow, I can just imagine my e-mail and voice mail for the next 48 hours for having to answer that question, but... why not?" Chipman replied. "I mean, we got this place (the $133-million MTS Centre) built. Hockey's obviously a very important part of our culture. If it could work somehow, I think there's reason... you should always dream."

That's how Chipman has always referred to the possible return of the NHL; a nice dream. Well, it's not going to be a dream anymore, at least financially.

To that extent, in fact, this won't boil down to, "Will a team become available at some point?" It won't be a matter of, "Are there enough corporate dollars in town to buy into the team?"

No, it's going to ultimately come down to this: Are there enough Manitobans willing to cough up at least $2,000 a year -- every year -- for season tickets that will average between $50 and $70, more than double the average cost of a Jets ticket back in 1996, when the franchise lost an astonishing $25 million with a payroll of just $17 million. And then there's the up-front cost, as the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, for example, were recently sold for about $100 million Cdn.

Still, times have changed. In 1994, when the last CBA was signed, it was common consensus that the Jets' days were numbered. When the impact of the new agreement finally takes hold, it will equally be the consensus that the NHL will probably be back.

But, ultimately, this isn't going to be about what U.S. owner might be selling and what local ownership group could afford the tab. It's going to depend on you, Winnipeg hockey fan, and how much you're prepared to cough up.

Might as well decide now. Because it's only a matter of time. Bank on it.

randy.turner@freepress.mb.ca